United States’ imports to Mexico were worth $160.55 billion in the first half of the year – practically unchanged from the same period of last year – leaving Mexico with a two-way trade surplus of $75.49 billion.
Mexico exports a wide range of goods to the United States including vehicles, auto parts, oil, electronics, fruit and vegetables, meat and drinks such as beer and tequila. U.S. imports to Mexico include gasoline, agricultural products including corn used as livestock feed, and manufacturing goods such as machines and plastics.
Gabriel Casillas, head of Latin America economics at Barclays, said that the strengthening of the Mexican peso – which can make Mexican products more expensive when sold abroad – didn’t seem to have had an effect on Mexican exports in the first half of the year. Demand for Mexican goods was more than the increased cost of same due to the appreciation of the Mexican currency, he said.
“While we don’t see a slowdown of the U.S. economy it will be difficult to see a [decrease] in Mexican exports,” Casillas said.
Mario Correa, an independent economist, said that “North America is the natural destination for Mexican exports” and noted that the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the free trade deal that came after NAFTA in 2020, “gives us a great advantage compared to other regions and countries.”

The USMCA seeks to strengthen the integration of the Mexican, U.S. and Canadian economies and thus make the three countries less dependent on supply chains outside the region. The data on the Mexico-U.S. trade relationship in the first half of 2023 provides a concrete example of a benefit the free trade agreement has brought to Mexico, even as it passes Canada as the United States’ largest trade partner.

The USMCA – largely negotiated while former presidents Enrique Peña Nieto and Donald Trump were in office – has also helped start the nearshoring process in Mexico, in which foreign companies relocate here to take advantage of being close to the United States.
Luis Adrián Muñiz, an economic analyst at the  Monterrey-based company Vector, said that Mexico’s ranking as the United States’ largest trade partner this year “makes perfect sense” considering the significant investment made by companies that have relocated here from other parts of the world.

Many foreign companies have recently set up operations in Mexico, or taken the decision to do so, to take advantage of quick and easy access to their main market – the United States. A range of other factors, including affordable labor costs, the presence of a large educated workforce and growing challenges associated with operating in China have also encouraged firms to relocate to Mexico. The growing nearshoring process was cited as a major reason why foreign direct investment reached an impressive $18.6 billion in the first quarter of the year, according to early data results.

To further develop Mexico’s exporting potential, the country needs a strong and diverse energy industry that includes the generation of electricity from renewables, Correa said. Marcelo Ebrard, the former foreign affairs minister who resigned in June to focus on running in the 2024 presidential election, said late last year that Mexico needs to increase the use of renewables “at a rate even faster than the United States” to ensure it can follow any clean energy requirements the U.S. sets on exports to that country. Ebrard then said that Mexico would work together with the United States to double its capacity to produce renewable energy by 2030. President López Obrador on Tuesday emphasized the importance of the trade relationship between Mexico and the United States. He noted that Mexico has recently passed Canada as the United States’ largest trade partner and said he was hopeful that the nation he leads would hold onto that position.“The environment for investment is very good in Mexico, there are excellent conditions,” he said, adding that Mexico is the world’s “preferred” country for foreign investment.